September 23, 2023

This 12 months’s main contests are over, and now we all know the lay of the political panorama for this November’s common elections for the Basic Meeting. Listed here are the highest Home and Senate districts to look at.

With this fall’s Home and Senate matchups formally set following final week’s main, Virginia’s political focus is popping to flipping and defending the handful of aggressive seats that may decide which social gathering controls the state’s authorities for the subsequent few years.

Republicans at the moment have majority management of the Home of Delegates after successful it again from Democrats in 2021. It’s not a giant majority, although – the GOP holds only a 52-48 edge within the 100-seat chamber, which signifies that Democrats have to flip simply three seats to take again the bulk.

Within the 40-seat state Senate, Democrats have a 22-18 majority. Flipping simply two seats right here will give Republicans efficient majority management of the chamber, as GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears will maintain the tie-breaking vote on every thing apart from finances payments.

Right here’s a fast have a look at the top-targeted districts throughout the commonwealth, inducing who’s operating and the newest marketing campaign finance information accessible.

Home of Delegates

Of the 100 Home seats, 48 have been gained by each Joe Biden in 2020 and Terry McAuliffe in 2021. One other 11 have been gained by Biden in 2020 and by Glenn Youngkin in 2021. Simply 41 seats have been gained by each Trump and Youngkin.

Of these 11 Biden/Youngkin seats, solely a handful are high targets – though a nasty evening for Republicans might very effectively ship all of them into the Democratic column.

Let’s begin with high targets for R-to-D flips.

HD97: This Hampton Roads-area district went for Biden 55-42 and for Youngkin 51-48. 

Neither GOP incumbent Del. Karen Greenhalgh nor Democratic challenger Michale Feggans confronted a main, so each have been capable of focus their campaigns and fundraising efforts on the overall election. Greenhalgh barely outraised Feggans by means of the newest reporting interval (which ended June 8).

HD82: GOP incumbent Del. Kim Taylor is, like Greenhalgh, a weak first-termer on this Petersburg-area district that went for Biden 55-44 and Youngkin 51-48.

She’s being challenged by Kimberly Pope Adams, who simply bested a better-funded opponent in her main. Consequently, although, Adams is getting into the overall election at a monetary drawback.

HD71: On paper, Republican Del. Amanda Batten’s seat is extra GOP-friendly than HDs 97 or 82; Biden gained it by simply 51-47, whereas Youngkin carried it 53-46.

Moreover, whereas challenger Jessica Anderson has raised a decent $167,000, the incumbent ended the final fundraising interval with nearly twice that quantity. An fascinating wrinkle on this race, nevertheless, is the truth that Anderson, a progressive activist and public college worker, has a sizeable following on TikTok.

And now, let’s have a look at the open seats.

HD21: This seat within the northern Virginia sub/exurbs went for Democratic U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton 51-49 in 2022, and Youngkin gained it 51-49 in 2021. (The presidential information accessible for this seat is just a little iffy, for causes defined right here.)

Marine veteran Josh Thomas has outraised his GOP opponent, former county supervisor John Stirrup, who was additionally pressured to make use of sources in his ugly Republican main.

HD57: This seat within the Richmond suburbs swung from 52-46 Biden in 2020 to 52-48 Youngkin a 12 months later.

Nurse practitioner Susanna Gibson gained her Democratic main 55-45%, whereas Republican businessman David Owen had no main opposition. Gibson had the fundraising edge by means of June 8, although the first left her with approach much less within the financial institution than Owen. 

HD65: Former Democratic Del. Joshua Cole is trying to return to the legislature by way of this Fredericksburg-area seat that went for Biden 55-43 and to Youngkin 51-48.

He faces Republican Lee Peters, a captain within the native sheriff’s workplace, who simply gained his main 79-21%. Cole had raised greater than twice Peters’ complete as of the final marketing campaign finance deadline.

State Senate

Of those 40 seats, 20 have been gained by each Biden and McAuliffe, and simply 16 have been gained by Trump and Youngkin. 4 districts have been carried by Biden in 2020 and Youngkin in 2021.

SD16: Incumbent GOP Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant faces Democratic Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg on this district that went 57-41 Biden and 52-47 McAuliffe.

However don’t let these margins put you relaxed; Dunnavant raised greater than twice VanValkenburg’s complete by means of June 8, though she doesn’t have all that rather more than the Democrat within the financial institution.

SD24: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Monty Mason faces former sheriff Danny Diggs on this Hampton Roads-area seat. The district swung from 53-45 Biden to 51-48 Youngkin.

Mason has the fundraising edge on this contest, and he additionally has extra within the financial institution than Diggs.

The opposite two Biden/Youngkin Senate districts are open seats with out incumbents operating.

SD17: Republican Del. Emily Brewer faces Democratic Del. Clint Jenkins for this seat that went for Biden 53-46 and Youngkin 52-47.

Brewer simply emerged from a bruising main, however the truth that she’s each outraised Jenkins nearly 10 instances over and has extra within the financial institution ought to increase alarm bells for workforce blue.

SD31: Final however not least, Democratic prosecutor Russet Perry faces Republican Juan Pablo Segura on this NoVA exurban seat that went 57-42 Biden and 50-49 Youngkin.

This seat appears to be like fairly pleasant to workforce blue on paper, however Perry simply emerged from a main and has far much less within the financial institution than Segura, who additionally occurs to be the son of billionaire Enrique Segura. With Virginia’s extremely permissive marketing campaign finance legal guidelines, household cash might very effectively tip the steadiness on this race if Democrats don’t totally have interaction.

So the upshot of all this (many due to Day by day Kos Elections and VPAP, that are at all times nice information sources) is that each chambers are winnable/flippable by both social gathering.

Additionally, the subsequent spherical of marketing campaign finance information drops on July 17 (for stories by means of June 30), so the viability of a few of these seats could shift between every now and then – and a few new ones may even make the listing.